, the Bureau of Reclamation is predicting that Lake Powell, one of the Colorado River鈥檚 most crucial reservoirs, may drop close to a 鈥渄ead pool,鈥� preventing the production of hydropower at Glen Canyon Dam.
But, water managers won鈥檛 let that happen. They鈥檒l first tap into reservoirs further upstream 鈥� including in New Mexico.
Usually, a dam hits a dead pool when the water level sinks just below the pipes and tunnel infrastructure used to retain and release water 鈥� so the water just sits there, unable to flow downstream. Lake Powell's dead pool elevation is 3370 feet.
For the Glen Canyon Dam at Lake Powell, that water levels will sink close to the 3,500-foot "minimum power pool" elevation threshold next year.
While that means less water, it also means the dam鈥檚 electricity production could come to a standstill. Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and Nebraska use this hydroelectric power.
Though, to keep the generators going, Colorado River managers will tap into upstream reserves elsewhere.
That includes Navajo Lake near Farmington, which primarily stores water from the San Juan River for local irrigation and other uses.
But, water policy researchers are skeptical of Reclamation鈥檚 prediction.
鈥淟ake Powell is currently at about 30% of full capacity,鈥� said Mark Squillace, water policy researcher and professor of natural resources law at the University of Colorado Law School. 鈥淭hat's obviously quite low, but it's been significantly lower than this in 2021 and we didn't hit dead pool at that time.鈥�
While demands on the Colorado River increase and water resources decrease over time from climate change, Squillace said that, for now, New Mexicans shouldn鈥檛 be worried.
鈥淚t's not likely that we're going to see dead pool at Lake Powell,鈥� Squillace said.
However, Squillace cautioned that water consumption from agriculture needs to change in a way that avoids having to 鈥渞etire鈥� farmland 鈥� such as incentivizing low-water-use crops and drip irrigation.
New Mexico鈥檚 agricultural industry uses about 80% of the state鈥檚 fresh water, according to a report from the non-governmental organization Food and Water Watch.
As the primary storage for users of the Colorado River, Lake Powell supplies water for upwards of 40 million people in seven states and Mexico.
Elsewhere, Native American tribes have long fought for equitable Colorado River water rights for agricultural and municipal needs. A in Congress would do just that. It has yet to be heard by the House Committee on Natural Resources.
For now, New Mexico鈥檚 stretch of the San Juan River will be the home of a newly minted infrastructure project that aims to bring reliable water to the Navajo Nation, Jicarilla Apache Nation, and the city of Gallup.
is now projected to be completed by December 31, 2029.
