It sounds like science fiction, but humans have the power to change the weather. What they don鈥檛 have, though, is enough data about how well it works.
That鈥檚 according to a from the Government Accountability Office, which recently released a report on cloud seeding 鈥� chemical compounds to existing clouds and can cause them to drop more rain or snow.
Cloud seeding can seem like an obvious solution for the drought-stricken Colorado River Basin, which gets from Rocky Mountain snowmelt and has seen a downward trend in annual supplies. Historically, policymakers have been slow to embrace the technology, choosing to focus more money and energy on reducing water demand rather than increasing water supply. Meanwhile, advocates for the practice say increased cloud seeding makes sense now.
The GAO鈥檚 study says reliable information on the effectiveness of cloud seeding could be standing in the way of a broader rollout, because policymakers don鈥檛 currently know if it鈥檚 worth the money.
鈥淭he people in charge of making those decisions have to consider return on investment,鈥� said Karen Howard, the GAO鈥檚 director of science, technology assessment, and analytics. 鈥淲hen it's not entirely clear what the effectiveness is, I think those decisions can be difficult to make.鈥�
The GAO report identified a few other obstacles besides the limited data.
One of the most common methods of cloud seeding involves the addition of silver iodide to clouds. That chemical compound is considered safe, but the report says more testing is needed to make sure it鈥檚 still safe when applied across wider areas.
In its current capacity, Howard said, cloud seeding work could be useful to add more snow to an individual ski resort, but those efforts would need to get a lot bigger to make a significant impact on the amount of snowmelt that feeds major Western rivers.
鈥淎lmost all cloud seeding is very local in nature,鈥� she said. 鈥淪o you would need a lot of seeding operations in order to cover an entire mountain range.鈥�
Meanwhile, on the ground in Colorado, one of the state鈥檚 foremost cloud seeding experts says is needed to expand the state鈥檚 work.
鈥淎bsolutely, I'm confident that it's effective,鈥� said Andrew Rickert, manager of the Colorado Water Conservation Board鈥檚 weather modification program. 鈥淭hat doesn't mean that we can't make it better.鈥�
Rickert said he works with a roughly $1.5 million budget. That is relatively modest in comparison to the hundreds of millions of dollars spent on developing other solutions to the Colorado River鈥檚 supply-demand imbalance 鈥� such as to use less water on their crops or developing technology that can back into drinking water. He also pointed to other state and private programs around the region that are quietly making advances to cloud seeding technology.
鈥淲e have the data that cloud seeding works,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e've been doing it since the early 1950s. I wish we had more funding to throw behind this.鈥�
So, if the technology is effective and government agencies are spending billions to try and solve the Colorado River Crisis, why aren鈥檛 they doing more to boost cloud seeding?
鈥淭he problem is levels of magnitude above what any weather modification can fix,鈥� said Amy Ostdiek, chief of the interstate, federal and water information section at the Colorado Water Conservation Board.
Ostdiek said cloud seeding is 鈥渙ne of the tools in the toolkit鈥� for Colorado and other states dealing with dry conditions, and emphasized the importance of reining in water demand.
鈥淲e know [cloud seeding] is not going to solve all of the basin鈥檚 problems, but we know that it works for a limited purpose,鈥� she said. 鈥淪o it's not as controversial or as sexy as all the other things going on in the basin. That doesn't mean it doesn't work, it's just kind of chugging along.鈥�
Rickert, who directs Colorado鈥檚 cloud seeding program, thinks it鈥檚 worth big investment even as policymakers focus on demand reductions.
鈥淵ou have people like Elon Musk trying to get us to Mars, but you know, why wouldn鈥檛 he put serious money behind cloud seeding?鈥� Rickert said. 鈥淵ou have like representative Marjorie Taylor Greene spouting all this stuff about geoengineering. Let's put some real science and money behind this and show people that we can increase our water in a safe and efficient manner.鈥�
This story is part of ongoing coverage of the Colorado River, produced by KUNC in Colorado and supported by the Walton Family Foundation. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage.
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